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NewMediaJournal.us
The armed bands on the waters are still roaming the seas of Aden and the Indian Ocean across from Somalia and Kenya, are not impressed with the dozens of naval units dispatched by powerful navies from around the world.
What is behind this Piracy phenomenon, what lays ahead if the international community intervenes and what could develop in that region if the latter is late to intervene or doesn’t meet the challenge? It appears the strategic challenge is even bigger than the mere piracy. Indeed the strategy now contemplated by regional powers could become a major military debacle. Here is why:
These so-called Somali pirates are strategically different from their historical predecessors in the Caribbean or from their contemporary colleagues in archipelagoes around the world. They aren’t a vast collection of individual thugs, acting as bands replicating what successful sea gangs have accomplished for centuries before them. They are too many, operating from extremely long shores, all using similar methods, and are backed from hinterland forces. They may seem like pirates as they seize ships and negotiate for the ransom. But these water thugs actually belong to a wider chess game. The grand ensemble of the army of little boats is in fact part of a regional Jihadi apparatus being deployed in the horn of Africa and beyond. The Jihadi grand circle building in the region is not limited to the pirates but involves hostile forces from the mid Red Sea to East Africa. The Somali pirates are merely one facet of this grand circle.
Ironically, the term used in Arabic (and now in Arabic media) to depict
the Somali pirates is Qursaan, which derives from Corsairs, the
swashbuckling French privateers from a bygone era. A view of the
operations map of these Somali Qursaan leaves little room that the end
aim is to create a vast zone of insecurity stretching from East Africa
to the Red Sea. A closer look allows strategists to easily realize that
these are the maritime passages from the Oil rich Gulf to the
Mediterranean via the Suez Canal and also parts of the East African
alternative routes the most economic via Cape Town. So, above and beyond
the globally low (even if locally lucrative) revenues that these
operations bring to their little pirates, the greater Qursaan operation
is of regional-international dimension. It is about holding these
passages hostages thereby bringing global negotiation. This is nothing
more than a maritime Jihad striking at the Western/international
lifeline on high seas to bring about a change in balance of power.
The so-called pirates are being used by land-based forces to drag the enemy into a wider war in the region, with all probabilities and possibilities open. To each decision made by the West and its allies, a counter plan will be applied. These are the types of complex threats that twenty-first century terror forces will develop to upset the balance of forces. For by challenging a previously stable area of transportation and commerce, the forces behind the Qursaan will be scoring a major victory. If the foe negotiates, they win, and in their view also, if the foe engages militarily, the Jihadists win too. Indeed, if Somalia will go back to full war, the forces engaged in such campaign will involve many navies in the area. Two months ago, Eritrea and the Iranian regime signed an agreement granting naval facilities to the Khomeinist military ships to use the country’s ports and eventually build a base on the Red Sea. Last month, reports signaling an alignment of military intelligence between the Sudanese and Iranian regimes and Hezbollah’s networks in the region. In our media debate we are still at the stage of sensationalist stories and footage of modern day piracy. In the war rooms of the other side, the Qursaan are probably a tip of an Islamic iceberg moving slowly towards one of the most sensitive regions of the world. The gap between our debate and strategic realities has always been at the core of failures. This time we should catch up before we fall behind and stumble terribly. About Dr. Walid Phares Dr. Walid Phares is the Director of Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, a visiting scholar at the European Foundation for Democracy and the author of the War of Ideas. Dr. Phares was one of the architects of UNSCR 1559. He is also a Professor of Middle East Studies at Florida Atlantic University and a contributing expert to FOX News. Dr. Phares teaches Global Strategies at the National Defense University. He serves as the secretary general of the Transatlantic Parliamentary Group on Counter Terrorism. Professor Phares’ is the author of two critical books on the Islamofascist threat to Western Civilization, "Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against the West  ”
and "The War of Ideas: Jihadism
Against Democracy." |
