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Dr. Walid Phares
Cedars Revolution Defeats Hezbollah in Election
June 10, 2009
According to the latest polls, the March 14
coalition which was formed in the wake of the Cedars
Revolution and the Syrian withdrawal in 2005, has
obtained a majority in the Lebanese Parliament,
defeating the Hezbollah political and financial
machine. This victory, in a very challenging local,
regional and international context, is a benchmark
with multiple lessons to learn. The following is a
first evaluation of the results, although they may
and will be challenged by Hezbollah and their
allies.
Under Threat Since 2005
Even though it was seen by the international community as the last
straw, the assassination of Rafiq Hariri and his companions wasn’t the
final tragedy Lebanon had to experience in 2005. The March 14 majority
in parliament and the country’s executive branch were targeted for
assassination, intimidation and destabilization by the Syrian-Iranian
"axis.” As of July of that year, politicians, journalists, MPs and
simple citizens were murdered, wounded and kidnapped by the terror
networks operating inside the country even after the withdrawal of
Assad’s troops. Deputies Jebran Tueni, Walid Eido, Antoine Ghanem and
Pierre Gemayel, who was also a minister in the cabinet, were killed by
car bombs and hit teams. In the fall of 2006, Hezbollah and its allies
staged urban unrest, followed in May 2008 with an armed invasion of West
Beirut killing dozens of citizens and burning media establishments. The
May coup crumbled the will of the Marh 14 Coalition and forced them to
accept drastic concessions in a conference organized by a new Iranian
ally, the Emir of Qatar. This June parliamentary election was the last
window of opportunity for the Lebanese resistance (against Hezbollah,
Syria and Iran) to score a democratic victory, allowing them to gain
time as the regional and international environment was turning gradually
against democracy forces in the region since 2007.
International Abandonment
In September 2004, the United States and France led an international
consensus to issue UN Security Council 1559 asking Syria to withdraw and
Hezbollah to disarm. Strengthened by international backing, Lebanon’s
democracy movement took the streets and showed its determination to
struggle for freedom, emulating Eastern Europe and South Africa more
than a decade earlier. As long as Washington and Brussels stood firmly
with UN resolutions and with the democratically elected government,
Hezbollah’s violence didn’t reduce their determination. However, as of
the fall of 2006, with the publication of the Baker-Hamilton report and
its adoption by a new leadership in the US Congress, the Bush
administration was restrained from supporting the Cedars Revolution, so
that chances for "a deal with Iran and Syria” were expanded. The change
in American policy emboldened Hezbollah and Syria and more terror was
unleashed against the democracy forces epitomized by the May 8, 2008
attack. When the Obama administration consolidated the idea of
"engaging” Tehran and Damascus, the latter’s allies in Lebanon prepped
themselves for a full takeover in Lebanon this June. In short, the
Cedars Revolution was believed by many to be eliminated in today’s
election.
Hezbollah’s Machine
In a new regional and international environment where the Lebanese
democracy public felt abandoned by the West, the Iranian-backed militia
was deploying a titanic apparatus. First, the organization has been
receiving between $300 million to one billion a year from Iran’s oil
revenues. Such amount invested in a small country like Lebanon defies
all norms of democracy processes and creates among Shia a robotic bloc
of support to Hezbollah. Since Iranian funding was also backing
political factions among Christians, Sunnis and Druze, the unbalance in
the political debate was significant. Second, Hezbollah’s security and
paramilitary forces practically control the south, the Bekaa, and south
Beirut, and that is more than half of the country. Add to it a very
efficient propaganda network with TV, radio stations, newspapers and a
web of relationship with Western media correspondents, journalists and
bloggers. Technically such a giant can't be beaten.
Voters Surge
But against most prognostics, including American and European media and
think tanks, Lebanese voters opposed a resistance to the Hezbollah
goliath and against all odds, broke most projections. While it was a
fact that Shia areas in the south and the Bekaa would fall to
Hezbollah’s candidates unchecked, most analysts predicted a win to the
movement’s Christian and Sunni allies in Saida, Mount Lebanon and some
districts in the Maronite hinterland. The ballistics placed March 14 at
around 45 seats and the rest of the 128 would go to Hezbollah’s
coalition. But a surge of voters, particularly in Christian and Sunni
districts created significant upsets for the militia’s candidates. The
most important wins against the "axis” were scored in Zahle, the Bekaa’s
largest Christian town; in Kura a northern Christian district
traditionally in the pro-Syrian camp, and in Saida where anti-Syrian
Sunnis defeated pro-Syrian Sunnis. The anti-Hezbollah vote was
victorious in Batrun and Besharre in the north and clinched two of the
seven seats in the Matn central district. The surge in vote took out
General Michel Aoun’s "fortress” in the Bekaa and snapped away from his
bloc half a dozen legislators. Aoun’s alliance with Hezbollah cost him
among Christians but his movement nevertheless won in three important
districts: Jbail, Kesrawan and Metn.
New Map
The new political map, at this stage of the results, gives the March 14
Movement (anti-Syrian and opposed to Hezbollah’s weapons) 71 seats which
enables it to impose a Prime Minister of its choice and remain in
control of ministries such as defense and interior. More symbolically,
three anti-Syrian wins are chilling: Nadim Gemayel son of the slain
President Bashir Gemayel, Nadia Tueni, daughter of the assassinated MP
Jebran Tueni, and Sami Gemayel, brother of the murdered MP and Minister
Pierre Gemayel, were all elected with high margins. What a lesson to the
terrorists.
Message to Washington and the West
The Cedars Revolution’s electoral victory surprised those Chanceries in
the West who were preparing for a forthcoming dialogue with a Hezbollah
controlled government in Lebanon. In his Cairo speech the U.S. President
spoke of recognizing "elected governments if they are peaceful.” Some
saw in it an insurance policy in the case of a Jihadist electoral
success in Lebanon. But now that the incumbent majority in Beirut
received 68 seats plus potential 3 other "independent” seats, the United
States will have to craft a new strategy for the little Levantine
country. Washington will have to decide if opening to Hezbollah is a
good option or backing March 14 all the way is a better strategy. The
Obama administration must learn the lessons of its predecessor: If you
announce a policy, in this day and age, you’ve got to be prepared to
follow through.
In addition, Lebanon’s democratic victory against Hezbollah, although
modest and still very precarious, should send a strong message to the
theorists of foreign policy in the Obama administration and the European
Union: Yes, people East of the Mediterranean see democracy as we see it
in the West, when freedom is available and when we don’t sell them out
in deals with authoritarians. The majority of Lebanese have told the
West that the region’s civil societies crave for the "same”
international values, not for Khomeinist or Jihadi views of the world.
March 14 to the Test
But in the end, real decisions regarding
the future of Lebanon won’t be produced in the White House, in the
Palace of the Elysee, or in Manhattan’s U.N. building. It is up to the
March 14 politicians to take the lead and form a government as mandated
by their voters. The public gave them a mandate in June of 2005 to
fulfill the goals of the Cedars Revolution. Instead they brought
Hezbollah to the cabinet, tergiversated on the disarming of militias,
failed to seize the opportunity provided by the U.N. Security Council,
didn’t use their majority vote to elect a president early on and simply
wasted too much time as Hezbollah was wrecking havoc in the country.
Incredibly, and despite terror, the voters renewed the mandate for
another four years. March 14 leaders must use that time intelligently,
swiftly and learn from past mistakes. For Hezbollah is today five times
stronger than half a decade ago, as determined to take them down as
before and the United States is on a different course than "spreading
democracy.” The winners of today’s elections must fulfill the will of
their citizens and succeed in convincing the public abroad of their
ability to confront the threat. |
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