Spiraling Toward a Nuclear Exchange
World Lee Boyland
April 17, 2008
 

Indecision is the path to war. The world is about to repeat errors that led to WWII: talking peace while a dictator prepares for war.

 

Iran’s President again showed his contempt for the UN by announcing Iran is installing 6,000 more centrifuges that spin at thousands of revolutions per minute. Ahmadinejad fails to say if they are the second generation P-2s or the older P-1s centrifuges. The type doesn’t matter, Iran is on its way to establishing a production line for fissile material—the fuel for nuclear weapons.

 

Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei conducts an endless series of meetings with Iran’s Atomic Energy Commission, while "editing” the reports of his scientists. Isn’t it wonderful to have a lawyer as the head of the United Nation’s Atomic Energy Administration? He wouldn’t know a neutron if he met one, but he sure could justify its right to exist. Under intense pressure, ElBaradei requested a meeting to provide answers about Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. Iran responded by canceling ElBaradei’s meeting with Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran's nuclear program.

 

On April 14th, NewsMax’s Jim Meyers reported that a credible source predicted that the U.S. will strike Iran. If the U.S. doesn’t, Israel will have to.

 

There are several key nuclear targets in Iran.

 

Isfahan

The uranium conversion plant at Isfahan. Yellow cake is converted to uranium hexafluoride (UF6), a solid salt at room temperture, stored in stainless steel containers. The containers are probably stored underground near the facility. Tunnels lead into a nearby mountain.

 

Two experimental nuclear reactors are also located in the area: one built by the French and a heavy water reactor built by the Chinese.

 

Chemical Industries Group operates a large explosive and rocket propellant plant in the area.

 

Natanz

The underground centrifuge facility at Natanz. Cylinders containing uranium hexafluoride are connected to the centrifuge cascades and heated. The UF6 salt turns into highly corrosive gas that flows into the first centrifuge of a cascade. A cascade consists of thousands of centrifuges connected together in series. The more cascades the gas passes through, the greater the concentration of U-235.

 

Arak

Iran’s IR-40 nuclear research reactor near Arak. This is a 40 megawatt heavy water reactor. When completed, probably next year, it will produce enough plutonium-239 for two nuclear bombs per year. Iran is also constructing a heavy water production plant near Arak.

 

Bushehr

Iran’s commercial 1,000 megawatt light water reactor at Bushehr. Russia has delivered all of the eighty-two tons of enriched uranium fuel rods required to start the reactor. The fuel rods are being installed, and the reactor may go critical by the end of this year. Spent fuel rods contain Pu-239, which can be recovered to be used to make nuclear weapons.

 

Parchin

Located thirty kilometers south-west of Tehran, is a major defense center. Reports, unconfirmed by inspections, identify Parchin as a major weapons development and explosive manufacturing site. It may also be the nuclear warhead development site, Iran’s Los Alamos. Nuclear activities are underground.

 

What will happen if Iran’ nuclear facilities are bombed?

 

If the U.S. takes out one or more of Iran’s key weapons sites, there will be a lot of gum flapping at the UN and by the media. There is also the possibility that one or more liberal members of Congress will have a heart attack or a stroke. The only real dangers are attacks against the U.S. homeland and overseas assets by Iranian sponsored terrorists. Iran has threatened to launch thousands of missiles at Israel if the U.S. or Israel attacks.

 

Should Israel decide that Iran poses an imminent threat, a clear and present danger, and that the U.S. is not going to act, Israel may decide it must attack to survive. Israel is taking Iran’s missile threat seriously. Israel has just completed the largest home front military exercises in its history. NewsMax’s source said, "Israel is preparing for heavy casualties.” Israel’s Minister of National Infrastructure, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, warned Tehran of the consequences of such an attack, "An Iranian attack will prompt a severe reaction from Israel, which will destroy the Iranian nation.” This statement can only mean a nuclear reply, and Israel can annihilate Iran.

 

There is a slight possibility Iran would launch its missiles at Israel if the U.S. made the strike. Should this occur, the U.S. would have to finish the job—destroy Iran’s military—or Israel would destroy Iran. One can only hope the supreme leader would stop Ahmadinejad from committing national suicide.

 

The world’s alternative is to do nothing and allow Iran to get THE BOMB. Then wait to see who they use in on. If Iran does use the bomb, directly or by proxy, the result will be the total annihilation of Iran. Reaction by other Muslim nations, Pakistan for example, could start a regional nuclear war, leading to WWIII.

 

The world is faced with several bad options. The longer we wait, the fewer the options. We must choose the least painful: Logically, taking out Iran’s nuclear capability before they get a nuclear weapon is the only choice.

Lee Boyland earned a degree in nuclear engineering, then entered active duty as an officer in the U.S. Army Ordnance Corps. A graduate of the U.S. Navy’s Explosive and Nuclear Ordnance Disposal Schools, Boyland was assigned to the Defense Atomic Support Agency in Albuquerque, NM. A member of DASA’s Nuclear Emergency Team responsible for nuclear weapons accidents, including the rendering safe of armed nuclear warheads, he had access to the design details of every nuclear and thermonuclear warhead developed by the United States through the Mark 63 warhead. His duties took him to the Nevada Test Site on many occasions. After leaving the Army, he designed conventional and special ordnance, and demilitarized chemical weapons at Rocky Mountain Arsenal and Tooele Army Depot. He made the transition to hazardous waste management by applying aerospace combustion technology to incineration of Agent Orange. He is the author of The Rings of Allah and Behold, an Ashen Horse, which received critical acclaim by the Military Writers Society of America.

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