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About Paul R. Hollrah
Paul R. Hollrah is a freelance writer. He is a member of the Civil Engineering Academy of Distinguished Alumni at the University of Missouri - Columbia and a Senior Fellow at the Lincoln Heritage Institute. He currently resides in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
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The Political Realignment of 2012
Paul R. Hollrah
August 4, 2012
There are those who insist that Barack Obama will win reelection to a second term, and there are those who think that Mitt Romney will defeat Obama, but in a very close race. And although any victory over Obama is an absolute must for the future of our republic, a quick look at a few major demographics tells us that a major political realignment may be in the offing.

In 2008, Barack Obama, the best teleprompter reader the Democrats could find, defeated John McCain, the most incompetent campaigner the Republicans could find, by 9,522,083 votes...69,456,897 to 59, 934,814.

According to best estimates, approximately 55 million Americans are registered as Republicans. Karl Rove tells us that, when George W. Bush ran for a second term in 2004, approximately 44.8 million Republicans voted, while John McCain was able to attract only 41.4 million Republicans in spite of Sarah Palin’s magnetic appeal. But 3.7 million Republicans were either so turned off by McCain’s quirky brand of conservatism, or so enamored with “the one’s” messianic appeal, that they voted for Obama. Given the absolute contempt in which Republicans now hold Obama, at least 90% of those prodigals can be expected to return to the Republican fold in 2012.

Using the 2008 Obama-McCain vote as a baseline, with the current level of enthusiasm among Republicans, and before accounting for other demographic shifts, the unified GOP turnout in November should bring the 2012 vote count to: Obama: 66.13 million, Romney: 63.26 million.

Among veterans, 2.4 million more veterans voted for George W. Bush in 2004 than voted for McCain in 2008. If they voted in the same numbers in 2008 as in 2004, those 2.4 million likely voted for Obama. However, veterans have even less respect for Barack Obama than they had for Senator John Kerry. At least 90% of those veterans can be expected to vote Republican in 2012, bringing the projected vote totals to: Obama: 63.97 million, Romney: 65.42 million.

In 2008, Obama won the independent vote by 8 percentage points, 52% to 44%. However, a July 1 CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Romney winning the independent vote by 7 points, 49% to 42%. If Romney takes 55% of the independent vote and Obama takes 45%, Romney will gain 4.22 million votes among independents while Obama loses 2.71 million, bringing the totals to: Obama 61.26 million, Romney 69.64 million.

Among black voters, if Obama wins just 1% fewer votes than in 2008, he loses 257,000 votes. With black unemployment at 14.4%, and with black pastors organizing to oppose Obama after his much-publicized endorsement of same-sex marriage, he could easily lose 5% of the black
vote, or 1.28 million votes, none of which may go to Romney. The totals? Obama 59.98 million, Romney 69.64 million.

Among young voters, Obama defeated John McCain by 34 percentage points. The latest CNN/Public Opinion Research poll shows Obama with just a 23 point lead over Romney. If joblessness among the young, particularly college graduates, remains high, Obama could lose, conservatively, an additional 1.25 million votes in this demographic. The projected totals? Obama 58.73 million, Romney 70.89 million.

But the most troubling demographic for Obama may be the country’s 67 million Roman Catholics. Among Roman Catholics, Obama is suffering major losses in the wake of his same-sex marriage policy and his order requiring Catholic schools and hospitals to provide free contraceptives to employees. According to a Pew Research poll, in 2008, when Obama was elected, 53% of Catholics identified themselves as Democrats while 37% were self-identified Republicans. By 2011, before the HHS contraceptive ruling...before Obama’s overt attack on religious freedom and Roman Catholic church doctrine...those numbers had slipped to 48% and 43%, respectively...a 5% loss for Democrats and a 6% gain for Republicans.

However, among Catholics who attend mass weekly, the numbers are even more significant. In 2008, the most devout Catholics split evenly, 45% to 45%, between Democrats and Republicans. By 2011, Republicans has opened a 12% gap over Democrats, 52% to 40%. It is this latter group of Catholics whose votes are most likely to be influenced by Obama’s attack on religious liberty. A recent poll by a Catholic association shows that 29% of Catholics said that they are “less likely” to vote for Obama in 2012, while 13% said they are “more likely” to vote for him.

U.S. Catholic bishops are united against Obama’s contraceptive mandate. The U.S. Conference of Bishops recently completed a Fortnight for Freedom, a campaign of prayer and education about religious freedom. The bishops are not alone in encouraging prayer and education for religious liberty. A new campaign of prayer, fasting, and repentance, called 40 Days to Save America, will be held September 28 through Election Day, November 6. On the 40 Days to Save America website, campaign organizers say the nation faces “pending economic collapse, moral disintegration and internal terrorism.” They call on people of faith to make informed choices and vote, not as members of any political party, but as “followers of the living God.” Web visitors have the option to sign up for daily prayer emails and to find online voter registration forms.

If Roman Catholics are as energized to vote in 2012 as Republicans, some 50.25 million can be expected to vote. Taking into account the change in political identification and the “more likely” vs. “less likely” sentiment for Obama, the Obama vote count among Catholics could easily drop by 6.53 million votes, while Romney could gain 7.54 million. The totals? Obama: 52.2 million, Romney: 78.43 million...a defeat of landslide proportions that could carry, in addition to swing states such as Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia into the GOP column, but states such as Minnesota, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as well.

As Obama wakes up each morning, staring a defeat of historic proportions in the face, he knows that it will take a dramatic move of some kind to win reelection. His latest move it appears is to recruit Bill Clinton to prop him up. However, there is little hope that the Democrats’ senior
statesman, the party’s “comeback kid,” can produce a miracle of that magnitude.

If the poll numbers hold up between now and November, the 2012 General Election may provide the long-awaited political realignment that is absolutely essential to the social, economic, and political rebirth of our great nation. If Barack Obama has accomplished nothing else in his four years in the White House, he has made it clear through his thousands of public declarations and teleprompter speeches exactly who owns each of the major issues and special interest agendas.

As the American people go to the polls on November 6, 2012, they can have no doubt that the Democratic Party has taken full ownership of the following: a) labor racketeering and its ties to organized crime; b) the monopoly power of public employee unions; c) the de-construction of the teaching profession and the dumbing-down of public education; d) the destruction of the black family unit; e) the gay, lesbian, transgender, and bisexual agenda, along with the tacit support of pedophiles and other sexual deviants; f) the same-sex marriage agenda; g) the illegal immigration, open borders, and sanctuary cities agenda; h) the exportation of weaponry to drug cartels in Mexico; i) the promotion of fraud, violence, and intimidation in our electoral process; j) class warfare and the vilification of business enterprises, large and small; k) the attack on religious liberty; l) the domination of the public sector over the private sector; m) the opposition to American energy independence; and n) the un-economic subsidization of “green” energy.

There may be more. Nevertheless, in a single paragraph we have the major planks in the platform that liberals and Democrats have been constructing since the days of Woodrow Wilson. The presidency of Barack Obama has been merely the icing on the cake, the culmination of more than ninety years of socialist planning and scheming.

What is needed now is to hang that platform around the necks of Democrats, preventing them from ever again governing our country. Unfortunately, so-called “establishment” Republicans, of which Mitt Romney is a prominent member, have never had the courage and the fearlessness to lead in the face of Democratic opposition. Since the day that Ronald Reagan fired the traffic controllers we’ve seen only rare instances of real political toughness on the part of Republican presidents. Mitt Romney must be made to understand that the Republican Party will never have another opportunity like the one that is now before us. He and his administration must be resolute and fearless, and they must demonstrate a “take no prisoners” approach to dealing with Democrats and the federal bureaucracy.

If Governor Romney will choose a running mate such as Congressman Paul Ryan, the current chairman of the House Budget Committee...a man who knows federal spending better than anyone else in Washington...the contrast between the Republican and the Democratic tickets will be striking. On one hand, Republicans will offer two consummate professionals: a former governor and successful businessman, and a serious-minded seven-term member of Congress, while the Democrats offer an inexperienced sock puppet who thinks the U.S. has 57 states, and a walking gaffe machine who thinks that, when the stock market crashed in 1929, President Roosevelt went on national television to blame it all on his Republican predecessor.

The time for a political realignment is now. We have no place else to go.


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