September 25, 2013
With defunding Obamacare a front burner issue, it is nearly impossible to not jump in the fray and offer an opinion. There are two strategies at play and each deserves consideration. The goal of each is ultimately the same, repeal Obamacare entirely.
On one side is the establishment Republican Grand Slam strategy. Basically, this is not doing anything now and uses the damage to the economy that is sure to deepen to win the House and Senate races in 2014. If the Republicans fail to win veto proof majorities, that can be leveraged to win more seats and the White House in 2016, again contingent on continuing economic damage and foreseeable abuses sure to emerge from Obamacare. The Republican House leadership has telegraphed this message repeatedly that as "one-half of one-third of the government" they cannot stop Obamacare. If the strategy works for 2014, the mantra changes in 2016 to "one-third of the government" cannot end Obamacare.
The Grand Slam strategy appears to be a safe course for establishment Republicans and the party while at the same time thwarting Conservatives. It is a bet the economy will get worse and Obama's policies will get the blame. All the Republicans have to do is sit back, let nature take its course and repeat saying "we told you so."
So what's wrong with the Grand Slam strategy? It appears to be good for the party but it is not good for the country, and that may foil the strategy in an unforeseen way. Undoubtedly, dependence on government will grow as the sand of Obamacare and other policies wears down and clogs the economic engine. Will people scream tax the rich, increase spending, and raise the debt ceiling or elect Republicans? Hardship shortens foresight. The Republicans will be boxed into a corner and no matter what they do, it will cost them votes. The Grand Slam strategy surrenders the initiative to the media and Democrats at this point. This is always the problem with defensive, do nothing strategies, whether it is war or politics. Instead of being their salvation, the wrecked economy could be the Republican nemesis in that they could have stopped it but did not.
On the other side is the Breakout Strategy favored by Conservatives. It is more complicated and has more goals. One goal is to flush out establishment Republicans and put their seats on the line now so challenges can be raised in the 2014 primaries for those not supporting the defunding effort. Timing is critical. If Republicans win majorities in the House and Senate in 2014, Obamacare can be defunded again. If those majorities are veto proof, Obamacare can be repealed. If not, repeal becomes an issue in 2016.
The Breakout Strategy is a face-off between establishment and Conservative Republicans that could determine the future leadership, if not the very existence of the party. This strategy is time sensitive, depending on the current level of public distaste for Obamacare and the looming 2014 primaries. It is also confrontational, satisfying Conservative desires and demands that someone stand up to Obama, Reid, big government and the media.
So what is wrong with the Breakout Strategy? It appears to be good for the country but bad for the party. The obvious split between establishment and Conservative Republicans could widen and reach down to the grass roots of the party itself. If the defunding bill succeeds, the party leadership may not be reliable in the ultimate show down that must take place with Obama and sabotage the bill through compromise. This could trigger a fight for party leadership, more Conservative defections and increasing the risk of a fracture. If defunding succeeds, the establishment Republicans will still be establishment Republicans and mistrust of the party will still linger.
I am a Conservative and the good of the country comes before potential risks to the party that the party can mitigate. The biggest risk to the Republican Party is leadership timidity and clinging to big government. The people want Obamacare gone and the numbers are good. The timing is right. What is needed will be the leadership to get us through the crisis Obama will create and from which he will be shielded for responsibility by the media. It is a fight that can be won but if the Republicans refuse to fight, they will brand themselves as the party of irrelevancy.
The BasicsProject.org informational and educational pamphlet series is now available for Kindle and iPad. Click here to find out more...
The New Media Journal and BasicsProject.org are not funded by outside sources. We exist exclusively on tax deductible donations from our readers and contributors.
Please make a tax deductible donation today.